Economic dating committee

See our Privacy Policy and Third Party Partners to learn more about the use of data and your rights.

In July the current economic expansion in the United States officially became the longest on record dating back to 1854.

The investment management process is designed to provide well-diversified portfolios constructed with a methodology based on prudent risk management, asset allocation, and security selection.The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee is charged with maintaining official records of expansions and recessions.The NBER defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity (this is slightly different than the traditional definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP).The chart below illustrates the shallow recovery since the Financial Crisis: Given that the current economic expansion is now the longest in history, does this mean that the United States is overdue for a recession? Historically economic booms were followed by busts.An over-simplified business cycle typically followed a similar pattern: the economy expands rapidly – unemployment falls – inflation overheats – financial bubbles forms – the Fed responds by raising interest rates – credit tightens – good borrowers struggle to find loans – the economy stumbles – a recession occurs – the economy bottoms – repeat.

Leave a Reply